Weather forecasts versus reality 2 Oct 19



16º 16.424s 142º 41.198w

Thu Oct 03 2019

Would you believe I just remembered my 22nd wedding anniversary is TOMORROW? It’s almost 9:00 pm and there ain’t nowhere to go shopping, that’s for sure. Well, at least we’ll be spending it sailing, one of our shared passions. . .

When we left Makemo this morning it was to get ahead of a big wave of Southeasterly wind that was going to help us towards Fatu Hiva. It looked like we’d have to motor through a big blue hole until the wee hours of Thursday morning before the wind would fill in, so we had spent a sack load of money on extra diesel at Makemo. Well, we motored about an hour this morning before the wind filled in, and until about 10 minutes ago we’ve been sailing ever since.

Just after dinner when Isabel had retired to her lair and I was about to report in on the evening SSB net, the wind increased from 8 to 18 knots and started to shift in direction. Pretty quickly the only choice was to live with the wind shift in the short term while we put in reef 1. Isabel appeared on deck to drive the main halyard while I ground on the reefing line, and in about 10 minutes we had the reef in and looking good. Not before having to clear the fouled reefing line up at the goose neck, however.

Reef installed, we tacked to get back on an Easterly heading. The wind had shifted about 180 degrees in about 5 minutes. At first we thought it was due to a nearby squall, but after texting back and forth over the Iridium Go with a nearby boat anchored at Raroia, we figure it was a frontal passage. The wind has now started back around the clock, and I’m betting it’ll be back to the original Southeasterly direction in another hour.

In the meantime, we’ve been converging on the atoll of Raroia which is a bit of a long thing stretching from Southwest to Northeast, and our objective is to continue to make as much Easting as practical before the winds drive us North anyway. With the wind up and down and the direction round and round, I finally said “enough”, furled the jib and fired up the port engine. Heck, I wanted a hot shower tonight anyway. Now we’re motor sailing with a reefed main to get on the Southeast side of Raroia where I hope the wind will settle back down and I’ll have better steering options. Had I elected to stay on the West side of Raroia, the wind angle would have forced a very Northerly heading, something we don’t want yet. Guess I’m glad I spent a load on diesel after all.

Sailing in highly variable wind conditions with a large landmass to get around becomes a bit of frustration and a lot of decision making. Once a side is selected we’re committed, and with the wind continuing to shift it’s a bit of a guessing game what the conditions will be in 2 hours when I finally get us there. No matter what choice I make, I’ll probably be wrong, just like when I try to pick the shortest (i.e. quickest) line at the supermarket checkout or at the Costco gas pumps. Invariably some knothead in front either pulls out coupons and a bag of pennies, or they can’t get their gas cap off or their credit card to work at the pump.

Honestly, in the 15 minutes since I started writing this the wind has shifted another 70 degrees and is now back to the original Southeast direction it was before all this silliness started. Looks like maybe the effects of the frontal passage have dissipated. Perhaps my decision to remain on the Southeast side of Raroia will pay the dividends I was counting on.

You sure you want to buy a sailboat and go cruising? And deal with this sort of crazy stuff? Heck, you could sit on your couch and watch Netflix and sleep in a bed that doesn’t sway about!

Well, unless you live in California, which or course is trying to slide into the Pacific ocean. Maybe then you should buy a boat.

Oh yeah, just to cheer everyone up, none of the last 12 hours of weather events was forecast. Can you believe we landed a man on the moon in 1968?

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