Playing Hide and Seek with Mr. Weather Saturday 27 February 2021

It’s always fun to read the NOAA weather forecast and see the statement “complex weather pattern”. It’s even more fun to realize that particular weather pattern is the one bearing down on you. I think we’ve determined that the “complex” part implies that the weather behavior is going to be very difficult to predict with any degree of accuracy.

Right now there’s a big high pressure ridge well to the North of us, mostly continuous, and a very long and kind of wiggly trough to the West and East of us. As luck would have it, the trough is almost over us as well. Add to that a cold front that pushed up from the Southwest and is now (thankfully) Northeast of us, and I suppose that qualifies as a “complex weather pattern”.

We had our fun kiting out on the East side, then we had fun at Herve and Valerie’s BBQ last Sunday, playing patonk and getting to know several new folks, locals and cruisers. The wind was supposed to blow in the teens and 20’s from the West and tucked in by the old village of Taravai offered great shelter from that wind. Apparently the numerous squalls that moved through the area didn’t get that memo, and we enjoyed winds up into the 30s and from all directions each time a squall moved through. The good news was that the seas never built and the holding in that anchorage is superb. We anchored in about 16 meters and deployed about 65 meters of chain, and with these new generation of anchors and all that catenary effect we stayed put just fine.

By Friday the wind was turning back to the East and powering up into the high 20s, and when we left the anchorage to move around to the West side of Taravai the seas were building and it was obvious it was “time to go”. It was low tide and with the swell and chop we saw as little as 2 meters under the keel exiting across the reef. Isabel had the good sense not to look at the instrument displays, and instead concentrated on using her human senses to help us avoid disaster. Soon we were in deeper water and moved back around to Anganui Bay where we first stopped after our arduous journey from Hao.

The wind was supposed to honk from the Southeast in the 20s with gusts up to the low 30s. Looking at the protection offered by Taravai led us to believe that we’d have good protection from the breeze, as the ridge lines look to be anywhere from at least 50 to 100 meters high. We tucked in at the Southeast corner of the bay to optimize the situation, then kicked back to do some boat projects.

I’m keen to see a topographical map of Taravai, because what we hoped for was not what we got. The wind came mostly from the Northeast, gusting up to 30 knots, and we moved in an arc of over 60 degrees, with some rapid heading changes of at least +/- 45 degrees. The holding was good and our ground tackle is robust, so it wasn’t worrying, just a bit unpleasant. It was interesting to watch the gusts move towards us across the water, but hey – no fetch, no foul. There was just a little residual Westerly swell from the open sea moving across subsea reef, perhaps 10 – 15 centimeters.

I’m a career test and evaluation engineer and my metric for anchorage comfort is whether or not it’s both safe and restful to enjoy some time in the hammock. Rowdy wave action makes for a downright dangerous hammock ride, but this anchorage was just fine, and the occasional wave motion didn’t excite the natural frequency of the hammock-Mark spring/mass system so all was well. A nap was had.

We passed the evening doing stock market research, watching a recently downloaded movie “Mank”, the Netflix movie that’s garnered critical reviews. I made it all the way through the flick; Isabel got an early start on her night’s sleep, snoozing through almost the entire movie.

This morning the skies are sunny, the wind has mellowed and the forecast looks pleasing enough for the coming week. That’s good news as the Taporo 8 is expected on Tuesday and we need to move back to Rikitea. We can hear wild goats in the distance.


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