We’ve got some pals who race virtual sailboats. Here’s a note I sent to them today:
Perhaps it’s fun for you to consider what we’re dealing with out here and what routing you might choose if it were you. We access GRIB files using PredictWind Offshore app, but you can do it for free on the net. Personally I prefer Windy when we’ve got the bandwidth.
Our current numbers:
6 Jul 21 Monday 1135 lcl (UTC-10)
N39deg05’ W160deg13’
COG 326T SOG 5.0 kts
TWind 046@12
Our objective:
The entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca. N48deg27’ W124deg42’
Our alternative objective (highest latitude we have insurance coverage, from Lloyds of London, of course): N54deg10’ W133deg30’
Funnily enough most of Alaska is closer than the bloody Puget Sound right now.
Anyway, I’ve just downloaded the latest forecast. We look out 8 days just for notional routing considerations, and figure the first 3 days are probably pretty accurate. When we see the GFS and ECMWF models converge we reckon we can have a high level of confidence in the forecast. When they diverge too much, nobody knows what the hell is going to happen and we might ought to hang onto our asses.
The Pacific High has been ill behaved this season so far with only a few exceptions. When we departed Kauai it appeared things were finally behaving like previous seasons. We believed the high had finally stabilized and wouldn’t continue to get smited by big low pressure systems that generally seem to originate in Asia. By summer the high seems to push them farther North.
What’s been happening this season is that the high has been elongating from NE to SW and that big high pressure region is generally light and variable winds. Our strategy when we launched from Kauai was to cope with this by remaining West of that big blue hole until North of it then turn East Northeast and proceed on up around the Easternmost center of the high, possibly even North of our intended destination, then on down to the target we’d go.
What’s really important to consider is that we’re sailing our home and we’re out here for weeks and thousands of miles, so avoiding abuse to ourselves and the vessel is a lot more important than seeing how fast we can get there or sailing the shortest distance. We don’t point particularly well, usually when beating in light seas we’ll sail to 45 degrees apparent, if it’s rough we’ll set the autopilot to 50 degrees apparent. With wind in the upper teens and full sails out we’ll make around 10 degrees leeway, but with a single reef in we’ll reduce that to maybe 2 degrees with a very small loss in speed over ground. In lumpy conditions a reef also makes the ride more comfortable.
There are just 2 of us so effective crew rest is critical. We each try to get 6 hours of sleep in the night, with Isabel crashing after an early supper. I stand watch until 0100 when she takes up the duty until I naturally awaken in the morning. We have a cup of coffee together, maybe a little fruit cake, then she’s off for a 2 hour nap before re-emerging and then we have an early lunch around 1100. That’s our routine day in and day out, and once we get in the rhythm we feel pretty well rested. In rough conditions we don’t rest as effectively, so beating to windward for days on end takes a toll on our mental acuity, emotional attitudes, and even occasionally physical heath, especially if we get knocked around and bruised.
You can see from where we are there’s a big blue zone we’ll be maneuvering across then as we consider turning to the East another zone appears to open up, so our biggest consideration is to find a way to continue sailing until we’re North of that second blue zone. Right now we figure we might have to sail as high as 45 deg North before we can confidently commit to an Easterly course, adjusting farther North as necessary, but trying to avoid winds in the 20s and bands of rain.
(to be continued)
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